Sunday, 8 June 2025

Probability

I make a lot of probability trees.

It's because I love the idea of quantifying emotional data. People are so hard to predict or understand, so making trees, or diagrams, or charts makes it feel a lot easier.

Take a conversation with a friend, for instance. If I heard she was mad at me, and she acted a bit distant - but I didn't know of anything I did wrong, and we had soft plans that weekend - I might make a chart of possible actions I could take based on her behaviour in the interaction. Things like:

 

                                                        She says hi? 

                                                     /                       \

                                                 yes                       no 

                                               /                                \

                                   ask about her day                ignore

                                               |                                    ^

                                      vague answer?                       |

                                      /                \                             |

                                  no                 yes   ---------------------                

                                /

                         chat !

 

 if 'chat !';                                                               if 'ignore';

 - weather                                                                - headphones in but only one

 - sports                                                                     in case she talks

 - homework

 

That formatting's gotta look so ugly on mobile. But you get the gist.

It's like this sorting algorithm I saw online and forgot the name of. Where the machine checks each number starting from the 2nd, and deletes any that aren't in order. Sorts things efficiently, strongly, and quickly - but loses details along the way. 

That's like how my analyses (apparently that's the plural? Isn't that just the verb?!? Why isn't it 'analysises!!?! Anyway) - lose the nuance of human interactions.  

Another example: say I want to ask my mother a favour, and she'll do it - but only if she's not mad at me. If she is mad at me, I don't want to ask. Let's also pretend I forgot to defrost the chicken and take out the recycling:

 

 start with 0 points

 

                                       approach mother and assess mood: 

                                                     /                             \

                                            happy (+5)              not happy (-5)

 

 

                she noticed chicken cold?                       she noticed recycling?

                        /                          \                                /                         \

                yes (-3)                no (+0)                yes (-2)                      no (+0)

                                                                      

if point total <2: favour denied

if point total >2: favour accepted

 

therefore: 

good mood + no + no = 5 = accepted

good mood + no + yes = 3 = accepted

good mood + yes + no = 2 = accepted

good mood + yes + yes = 0 = denied

bad mood + any = <2 = denied

 

So using that logic, I can catch a single glimpse at her, see she's mad and not even bother asking the favour. Which is stupid, seeing as those point totals don't actually exist, I just randomly decided on them.

It feels scientific and accurate because there's hard data involved. But the data is entirely based on my biased perceptions. It's a losing battle no matter how you play it - people, that is. If I falsely quantify it, I'll miss small cues, but if I play it by ear, I might see it completely wrong. 

I'm not sure what I was leading up to here, I just felt like drawing some lines. I suppose my point is just: conversations are confusing. But tree diagrams look soooo cool :3